Net Unrealised Profit/Loss — measures the total profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of market cap. Calculated as (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / Market Cap.
NUPL > 0.75 signals euphoria and potential cycle tops. NUPL between 0.5-0.75 is belief/optimism. NUPL < 0 means the market is in capitulation — historically excellent buying zones.
Bitcoin's price adjusted for monetary inflation (M2 money supply growth). Shows Bitcoin's real purchasing power value over time by removing the effects of currency debasement.
A composite indicator combining multiple pricing models to identify when Bitcoin has entered an unsustainably euphoric phase. Triggers when multiple independent models simultaneously signal overvaluation.
Realised HODL Ratio — compares the realised value of 1-week-old coins to 1-2 year-old coins. Measures the ratio between speculative and conviction capital in the market.
A mathematical model that plots Bitcoin's price on a logarithmic scale over time, creating a corridor of expected prices. Based on the observation that Bitcoin's price follows a power law relationship with time.